Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump in ABC News' Electoral Ratings

ABC/Ida Mae Astute(WASHINGTON) — Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton appears to be maintaining a decided advantage in the Electoral College this November, strengthening her grip around states tipping her way while forcing Republican nominee Donald Trump to defend a handful of typical GOP strongholds.

But a narrow path still exists for Trump. Toss-ups in Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio — as well as optimism that states like Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado might tip back into play — leave supporters hopeful.

So ABC News dug through states’ voting history, demographic shifts and head-to-head polling to develop these electoral ratings. ABC News puts Clinton at 272 electoral votes and Trump at 197, when including both solid and leaning states, which would give Clinton enough states right now in the solid and lean blue columns to hand her the White House. Sixty-nine electoral votes are in toss-up states.

Still, this election cycle has shown that this race can be unpredictable, and Trump has vowed to shake up the traditional map and put several blue states in play. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Solid Democratic

Despite Trump’s hopes of putting New York’s 29 electoral votes in play this election, the Empire State would be expected to pull for Clinton, along with other reliably liberal-leaning swaths of the mid-Atlantic. Most of the rest of the historically liberal Northeast would likely remain solidly Democratic in November. In the Midwest, Minnesota and Illinois would likely deliver Clinton a combined 30 electoral votes.

California, which boasts the largest share of electoral votes, at 55, has not voted Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Recent polling there shows Clinton leading Trump by double digits, keeping the Golden State safely in the Democratic column, along with Oregon and Washington. New Mexico is predicted to vote Democratic for the third consecutive presidential election.

Leaning Democratic

Seven more states across the Mountain West and Rust Belt would give Clinton another 75 electoral votes, but Trump is hopeful that he could pick off at least of one them. Colorado voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and growing Hispanic populations in both states may keep these states in the blue column for good.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are usually reliably Democratic states, but Trump’s popularity among working-class whites may put these states in play. A win would be an upset for Trump: Democrats have won every presidential race in Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1992 and Wisconsin since 1988.

Virginia, home to Democratic vice-presidential pick Tim Kaine, is also expected to tip toward Clinton, having voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. New Hampshire polling also shows a Hillary Clinton advantage there. And polling in Maine, another classic Democratic state, has shown the state’s at-large electoral votes could be up for grabs.

Toss-ups

Four toss-up states, worth 69 electoral votes, could tip the election Clinton’s way, as Trump would likely need to win nearly all those states in order to reach the White House. Ohio will be one of the key states to watch: The Buckeye State has voted for the winner of the White House every year since 1960.

Other toss-up states this year include large electoral vote prizes like Florida and North Carolina, both of which were decided by just a few percentage points in the 2012 election. Nevada could also go either way in this year’s presidential race, as could Maine’s second Congressional District — a rural area that could hand Trump a single electoral vote.

Leaning Republican

Georgia has voted for the Republican nominee in seven of the last eight presidential elections, but white voters are quickly making up a smaller proportion of active registered voters in the state. White voters made up 68 percent of registered voters in 2004, but they now make up only 58 percent of registered voters, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

Arizona, which has gone red in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, may be moving to the middle. Polling in Iowa also shows Trump with a slight advantage there, mostly thanks to an overwhelmingly white electorate. Nebraska’s Second Congressional district, which Obama won in 2008, is also showing signs it could tip Hillary Clinton’s way in 2016.

Solid Republican

The bulk of Trump’s electoral votes would likely come from historically Republican portions of the Great Plains, West and Midwest, as well as the Bible Belt, which stretches from South Carolina to Texas and boasts large numbers of evangelical Christian and social conservative voters.

West Virginia, which has seen unemployment levels rise under Obama, is expected to vote Republican for the fifth presidential election in a row, as is Alaska, which has not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Copyright © 2016, ABC Radio. All rights reserved.

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