POLL: A Dead Heat for Congress, Despite Clinton's Advantage

ABC/Ida Mae Astute(NEW YORK) — Hillary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race is no longer in the double digits in the latest ABC News tracking poll, and there are signs of vote splitting that could help down-ballot Republicans.

Clinton leads Donald Trump by 49-40 percent among likely voters. That’s not significantly different from the previous 50-38 percent Clinton lead, but it holds out the possibility of better days for Trump moving beyond his difficult last two weeks.

See a PDF with the full results of the poll here.

Moreover, likely voters divide essentially evenly, 47-46 percent, between the Democratic and Republican candidates in their congressional district. While the measure’s imperfect (it’s not limited to competitive districts, and doesn’t cover Senate races), it indicates challenges for Clinton forces as they seek to turn her support into a broader, Democratic wave.

Two key reasons emerge for the closer congressional contest in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. One is independent voters; the other, Republicans returning home for their local races:

  • Independent likely voters divide evenly between Clinton and Trump, 41-41 percent in the latest tracking data. By contrast, independents favor the Republican over the Democrat in their congressional district by 51-39 percent.
  • Trump wins 82 percent of Republicans in the presidential race, ceding 8 percent to Clinton and 6 percent to third-party candidates. In the congressional trial heat, however, 94 percent of Republicans stick with the GOP.

These results mark the difficulties the Democrats face in turning a highly polarized electorate to their advantage, suggesting that Clinton’s lead in the presidential race relies primarily on the idiosyncrasies of that contest, not any broader realignment in political preferences.

That’s underscored by the fairly low level of strong enthusiasm for both candidates, given their unusual levels of personal unpopularity. Half of Trump’s supporters are very enthusiastic about their choice, as are 48 percent of Clinton’s. For comparison, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney both had 60 percent strong enthusiasm at this point in 2012, as did George W. Bush in 2004. It was even higher, 71 percent, for Obama at this stage in 2008.

Strong enthusiasm has been as low as it is now, or lower, for some past candidates — 50 percent for John Kerry at this point in 2004, 39 percent for John McCain in 2008. Both, of course, lost to candidates whose support was more enthusiastic. It’s an advantage Trump held, but then lost.

His strong enthusiasm fell eight points, and overall enthusiasm among his supporters fell 12 points, from late September to mid-October. Clinton’s strong enthusiasm subsequently rose, putting them at parity today.

Copyright © 2016, ABC Radio. All rights reserved.

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on email
Email
Share on print
Print