ABC News(NEW YORK) — Presidential preferences have narrowed in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll — but not expectations of the outcome.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters polled say they expect Hillary Clinton to win the election, essentially the same it was in early September. That includes nearly all of her own supporters and a fifth of Donald Trump’s.

There are vast divisions, as well, on the question of vote fraud: More than nine in 10 Clinton supporters think votes nationally will be counted accurately; just 50 percent of Trump’s agree. And 70 percent of Trump backers think voter fraud is common. A mere 11 percent of Clinton’s say the same.

Vote preferences, for their part, show the narrowest division in the tracking poll to date, with 48 of likely voters polled for Clinton, 44 percent for Trump. Trump’s gained six points since the start of tracking, while Clinton’s -2 (not a significant change). This reflects slight shifts in intended turnout and recent consolidation for Trump in his party.

See a PDF with the full results of the poll here.

The results show sharp differences from the first four nights of tracking — immediately after a very difficult two weeks for Trump — compared with the past three nights, as those controversies have receded to some extent. Given that these are the two least popular presidential candidates in ABC/Post polling history, ambivalence about turning out looks to be a factor.

Two elements specifically are at play in the tracking trends in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. One is a slight rise this week in the share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who emerge as likely voters. The other is consolidation in their support for Trump, from 78 percent on the weekend to 84 percent now. That may have been personified Wednesday night by Sen. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, who said on Oct. 7 that he would not endorse Trump (“I’m out”), but now says he’ll vote for him.

Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.

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