POLL: Slight Shifts in Intention Aid Trump

ABC News(NEW YORK) — With his latest controversies abating in intensity, Donald Trump’s supporters are ramping up their intention to vote, edging him closer to Hillary Clinton. And anxiety about a Trump presidency, while high, is off its peak — now rivaled by discomfort with Clinton.

Sixty-one percent of likely voters polled say they’re anxious about the possibility of Trump as president, with nearly half “very” anxious. But that’s down from 68 percent in June, and anxiety about Clinton has moved the other way, up 5 points to 56 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll.

In a four-day average of interviews, 48 percent of likely voters polled say they’d support Clinton if the election were Thursday, while 42 percent pick Trump, compared to 49-40 percent Wednesday and 50-38 percent Tuesday. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support; Jill Stein has 1 percent.

The poll was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. The first five nights of tracking were by ABC only; as of this report, The Washington Post has joined the tracking poll, which is based on a rolling average of nightly interviews.

The Clinton and Trump changes in the latest results are slight, -2 and +4 points, and not statistically significant. That said, the last two nights have been better for Trump — a result that aligns with events: Interviews last Thursday to Sunday immediately followed peak controversy over his treatment of women, his refusal to say whether he’d accept the outcome if Clinton won and the final debate, in which most say Clinton prevailed. Some of the heat has abated since.

Additionally, and typically at this stage, the results are chiefly about turnout. Voter attitudes haven’t changed; intention to vote has. It ebbed among Republicans in the first days of the tracking poll, perhaps reflecting heightened criticism of Trump. The latest results find more Republicans, and somewhat fewer Democratic-leaning independents, saying they’ll vote. That underscores the critical importance of get-out-the-vote efforts by both campaigns in the final two weeks.

As reported Sunday, the share of Republicans who are likely to vote dropped by seven points from mid-October. In the nights since, Republicans have halfway recovered from this turnout drop as the news cycle has moved beyond the final debate. They accounted for 27 percent of likely voters in the first three nights of tracking, vs. 31 percent in the last two. (The share of Democrats has been steady, 36 percent.)

At the same time, the share of independent likely voters who lean to one of the parties has shifted: Among independents, 38 percent were Democratic leaners in the first three nights of tracking, vs. 28 percent in the last two. Vote preferences among all independents have followed suit, from an eight-point advantage for Clinton during the first three nights of tracking to a five-point deficit in the latest full tracking (four-night) results.

Democratic-leaning independents were a key support group for Bernie Sanders. In mid-October, 72 percent of them were likely to vote, vs. 66 percent now. While this six-point difference doesn’t reach statistical significance given the sample size, it is a group to watch in the next two weeks.

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